Worth Performs for Unfold and O/U, Most Intriguing Prop Bets – Verify Down Sports activities

Home » Worth Performs for Unfold and O/U, Most Intriguing Prop Bets – Verify Down Sports activities

 

The Tremendous Bowl isn’t solely the most important day of the 12 months for soccer followers. It’s the most important day of the 12 months for Vegas. A whopping $158.6 million was wagered throughout final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl in Nevada alone, topping the earlier 12 months’s file of $138.5 million. And though the books “solely” made a $1.2 million revenue, it marked the twenty sixth time in 28 years that the Home made cash on the massive recreation on the public’s expense.

So bettors beware. As I can attest to based mostly on my previous Tremendous Bowl betting misfires, and as ESPN’s Invoice Barnwell famous this previous week concerning the agony of Tremendous Bowl prop betting, it may be irritating to be on the flawed facet of those ridiculous wagers. Who is aware of what coloration Gatorade the profitable coach might be doused in anyway?

Nonetheless, Tremendous Bowl betting is all in good enjoyable. My recommendation: guess small, however boldly. The very best prop guess I ever made was throwing $10 on Tremendous Bowl LI going to time beyond regulation at +1,100. No Tremendous Bowl had ever been to OT, however one thing needed to give in the end, proper? By recreation’s finish, I seemed like a genius (or maybe simply actually fortunate!). One other tip: store for one of the best obtainable odds as a result of there are more likely to be line discrepancies between sportsbooks, significantly as kickoff approaches. Although the Tremendous Bowl remains to be one week away, right here’s a listing of advisable choices from SBD, for buying round for an early unfold that sits actually shut.

Earlier than I share my 5 most compelling prop bets for Tremendous Bowl LIII, let’s have a look at the unfold and over/below. After the Patriots/Rams line opened at a choose ’em, New England shortly obtained a rush of motion, pushing the unfold to -2.5. Is sensible given how the Patriots are peaking on the proper time after two spectacular wins over the Chargers and Chiefs.

Placing my Patriots fandom apart for a second, there are a couple of the reason why there may be worth on LA. First, though New England has a barely greater weighted DVOA, LA boasts a superior yards per play differential (+0.4 vs +0.2), which is vital to notice as a result of groups with this edge are a terrific 67-33 since Week 11 of this season. Second, the Patriots are receiving a staggering 86% of unfold bets from the general public. Excessive ranges of public help, nevertheless, have truly confirmed to be a nasty signal. Groups receiving lower than 25% of bets have traditionally lined the unfold at an almost 60% charge. And lastly, it’s been nice to be an underdog within the Tremendous Bowl, as groups within the Rams’ place are 13-4 towards the unfold and 10-7 straight up since 2001.

The over/below, in the meantime, opened at 58, surpassing the earlier file of 57 set by Tremendous Bowl LI between New England and Atlanta. Nonetheless, the whole has since fallen to 56.5 due to 63% of public cash betting the below, in response to The Motion Community. I’d be shocked if this line continued to drop, although, contemplating how the Rams and Patriots rank close to the highest of the league in each main offensive class. So in the event you’re considering of betting the over, now’s the time to pounce. 

With out additional ado, listed below are my 5 most intriguing prop bets.

 

Below 7.5 punts (-115)

The Rams’ offense had the fewest punts per drive within the NFL this season; and given the best way the Patriots’ offense has performed within the playoffs, I’d be shocked if their offense sputtered on Sunday. I’m hammering the below on this one. 

 

Sony Michel Over 80.5 speeding yards (-115) 

The rookie’s utilization has spiked within the second half of the season, as Michel has carried the ball a mean of 19.5 occasions per recreation since Week 12. Assuming he will get the same quantity of touches on this recreation, Michel would want to achieve roughly 4 yards per carry as a way to high 80 yards, which appears doable contemplating the Rams’ rush protection ranks twenty eighth within the NFL. 

 

Longest landing yardage: Over 46.5 yards (-115)

It looks like many of the Patriots’ touchdowns just lately have come through one-yard plunges from both Sony Michel or Rex Burkhead. Furthermore, LA hasn’t scored a landing of 47+ yards since Week 4 in response to Soccer Outsiders. However as I discussed earlier, I’ve discovered that it’s a must to go towards your instincts with these prop bets. Over 46.5 yards it’s! 

 

Will Maroon 5 play “Candy Victory” at halftime as a SpongeBob SquarePants Tribute? — No (+155)

That is the primary Tremendous Bowl I can keep in mind the place I’m not  enthusiastic about halftime. Possibly Maroon 5 will show me flawed, however I simply hope they don’t carry out a rendition of “Candy Victory” from the famed SpongeBob episode on the “Bubble Bowl.” I’m afraid Adam Levine would butcher it. 

 

Tremendous Bowl MVP: Cordarrelle Patterson (+12,500)

OK, to make clear…the chance that Patterson wins Tremendous Bowl MVP is kind of low. Odds are this award will go to the quarterback of the profitable crew. However the place’s the enjoyable in that? Now and again, somebody utterly out of the blue claims this honor. Oftentimes it’s an nameless defensive participant, however a return man — Inexperienced Bay’s Desmond Howard — as soon as received this honor for his efforts in Tremendous Bowl XXXI. 

And keep in mind Jacoby Jones’ efficiency for the Ravens in Tremendous Bowl XLVII? Jones broke the file for longest play in Tremendous Bowl historical past by returning a kickoff 109 yards for a rating, in addition to including a 56-yard receiving landing. Despite the fact that Jones didn’t in the end win MVP, my idea is that Patterson — who had 5 TD’s together with a kickoff return within the common season — doubtlessly  might have the same affect.

At +12,500, a $1 guess would lead to a $125 revenue if Patterson comes by means of. Keep in mind: guess small, however guess boldly. 

Posted by Mando

Co-Founding father of Verify Down Sports activities. Die-hard Boston sports activities fan (Patriots, Celtics, Bruins, Crimson Sox — in that order). Skilled on all issues associated to the Tremendous Bowl. Proudest life achievement: four-time fantasy baseball champion.

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