Since I revealed the annual forecast final January ’22, BTCUSD has already examined the decrease restrict of the forecast twice, at round $30,000.
I don’t know whether or not to interpret this behaviour as an indication of weak spot or not. What is for certain is that if the TOP of this halving cycle has been made it is extremely more likely to check no less than the first decrease band of my month-to-month Kama common (22,700$).
Let’s see intimately the degrees that I contemplate fascinating to look at.
I’d interpret as a sign of doable weak spot a breach of the $29,800 degree, actually we have to contemplate how lengthy bitcoin will stay under that degree.
In occasions of non permanent excessive volatility it might not be so critical a brief permanence there; nevertheless a protracted keep under this degree would have long run bearish implications. What does this imply? It signifies that the video games are over for this cycle and we should await the following halving of 2024, so I’d say 2025, to see a brand new all-time excessive. This conclusion I assume doesn’t shock you, by now the 4-year halving cycle of bitcoin is well-known to the general public.
The query is whether or not the value will cease on the first degree of the Kama band or not. I believe so, round $22,000 the help shall be very sturdy and there shall be patrons.
I exclude a extreme check on the subsequent help, round $14,000, additionally as a result of bitcoin has by no means moved under the excessive of the earlier halving cycle, on this case the final one was at round $19,800 in Dec. 2017; moreover even throughout the corona crash the value stopped on the primary decrease band (at the moment $3,800)
I’m wondering what must occur to see bitcoin check the second value band at $14k, if any of you could have concepts please come ahead 🙂
Personally, I shall be a purchaser once more across the first help of the Kama common, round $22,000. Ought to an excessive degree of volatility happen, I’ll enhance the place at $14,000 with a doubled place measurement (1 unit at 22k$ and a pair of items at 14k$) as a result of i’ve to capitalize when volatility is at excessive ranges with none concern.
See you on the subsequent replace.